FOREX SCAMBIO VALUTA - Analisi fondamentale

 

€

The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4915 level and was supported around the $1.4780 level. Stops were hit above the $1.4810 level, representing the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.4965 to $1.4310. The common currency moved higher on whispers that Q4 earnings from U.S. financial institutions this week will evidence more mammoth sub-prime write-downs. Citigroup is said to be writing down at least US$ 20 billion off its books with layoffs of 20,000 people looming. Traders are less than optimistic about the U.S. dollar given the recent capital-raising schemes announced by Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. Traders also await U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday with the core rate expected around 0.2% m/m. Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify this week and will solidify expectations the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to ease monetary policy later this month. The most likely scenario calls for a 25bps or 50bps easing on 30 January yet some bears believe the Fed will announce an intermeeting monetary easing before then. In eurozone news, EMU-13 inflation data will also be released on Wednesday and are expected to evidence a 3.1% y/y increase in December. European Central Bank member Liebscher said the “basic economic data for the eurozone remain at a healthy level, even if the uncertainty concerning the economy's further development and the risks associated with that is rising.” ECB President Trichet remained hawkish in comments last week, reinforcing the notion the ECB will continue to tighten policy. Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-13 industrial output fall 0.5% m/m and grow 2.7% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4705/ 1.4625 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥107.35 level and was capped around the ¥108.95 level. Japanese financial markets were closed for a market holiday but that did not reduce demand for yen overnight as the pair came within fifteen pips of its weakest level since June 2005. Traders are reducing their exposure to U.S. assets ahead of the Q4 earnings reporting season. Most traders do not expect Bank of Japan’s Policy Board to lift the overnight call rate from its current 0.50% level anytime soon. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥106.95 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥159.90 level and was capped around the ¥161.55 level. The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥210.70 and ¥98.45 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.2516 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.2620 – representing the pair’s lowest close since the yuan revaluation of July 2005. Data released in China overnight saw December consumer price inflation up 6.5% y/y, down fro, 6.9% y/y in November.

₤

The British pound weakened appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9645 level and was supported around the $1.9555 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $2.0100 to $1.9485. Data released in the U.K. today saw producer price inflation rise at its fastest pace in sixteen years in December on account of soaring gasoline and food prices. Factory gate prices were up 5.0% y/y, the highest rate since August 1991. These PPI data may make it more difficult for Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to ease monetary policy in the near future. Other data released today saw November annual house price inflation at 9.5%, down from 11.3% in October, according to government figures. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9260 level. The euro extended recent gains vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7605 level and was supported around the ₤0.7545.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0885 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1010 level. The pair established a new multi-decade low and the franc continues to make gains vis-à-vis other currencies. Swiss National Bank Chairman Roth was quoted this weekend as saying Swiss GDP growth may come in around 2.0% but warned a decrease in U.S. consumer spending will impact the Swiss economy. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1050 level. The euro and British pound weakened vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6230 and CHF 2.1365 levels, respectively. 

A$/ NZ$

The Australian dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9005 level and was supported around the $0.8890 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $0.7675 to $0.9400. Data released in Australia today saw December ANZ job ads up 7.1% m/m and 31% y/y. Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to remain hawkish. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8740 level. The New Zealand dollar moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as kiwi tested offers around the US$ 0.7910 level and was supported around the $0.7795 level. New Zealand dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7630 level.

C$

The Canadian dollar was little-changed vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.0145 level and was capped around the C$ 1.0205 level. Many traders expect Bank of Canada will remain dovish and reduce rates later this month. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.0440 level.

 

 

Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)

 

 (Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)   

 

EUR/ USD 1.4887    1.4914, 1.4781

USD/ JPY 107.90   108.95, 107.36 

GBP/ USD 1.9587   1.9647, 1.9556

USD/ CHF 1.0920    1.1010, 1.0884 

AUD/ USD 0.8997  0.9001, 0.8889 

USD/CAD 1.0173    1.0204, 1.0146

NZD/USD 0.7599         0.7607, 0.7547 

EUR/ JPY 160.53  161.54, 159.91 

EUR/ GBP 0.7599     0.7607, 0.7547 

EUR/ CHF 1.6260     1.6322, 1.6228 

GBP/ JPY 211.13    213.43, 210.72

CHF/ JPY  98.66     99.09,   98.44 

    

Support  Resistance Support  Resistance

 

EUR/ USD  USD/ JPY

 

 

L1.  1.4160 1.4780 110.50 116.55 

L2. 1.4045 1.4870  109.25 118.35
L3.  1.3950 1.4990 106.95 120.55

 

 GBP/ USD  USD/ CHF

 

L1.  1.9640 1.9985 1.1160 1.1465

L2.  1.9260 2.0165 1.1030 1.1575

L3. 1.8815 2.0435 1.0900 1.1715

 

 

 AUD/ USD  USD/ CAD

 

L1.  0.8535 0.8835   0.9720 1.0130

L2. 0.8330  0.8905 0.9485 1.0465

L3. 0.8205 0.9075 0.9055 1.0795

 

 

 NZD/ USD  EUR/ JPY

 

L1. 0.7555 0.7890 160.65 168.00

L2. 0.7415 0.7970 158.50 168.80

L3. 0.7290 0.8080 156.30  169.95

 

 EUR/ GBP   EUR/ CHF

 

L1. 0.7215 0.7440 1.6450 1.6850

L2. 0.7155 0.7530 1.6310 1.6920

L3. 0.7030 0.7640 1.6140 1.7040

 

 GBP/ JPY  CHF/ JPY

 

L1. 214.95 226.00  97.00   99.55

L2. 211.80 228.95  94.45  101.85

L3. 206.40 231.30  92.15  102.90

 

 

SCHEDULE

 

 

Sunday, 13 January 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

 

N/A NZ December QV house prices (11.4% y/y)

2330 Australia December TD Securities inflation (0.3% m/m)

2330 Australia December TD Securities inflation (3.4% y/y)

 

Monday, 14 January 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

 

N/A Japan December Nationwide department sales (0.9% y/y)

N/A Japan December Tokyo-area department store sales (1.7% y/y)

0030 Australia December ANZ job advertisements (0.7% m/m)

0745 France November current account

0900 Italy November industrial production (-1.5% y/y)

0930 UK December PPI, input (1.7% m/m)

0930 UK December PPI, input (10.3% y/y)

0930 UK December PPI, output (0.5% m/m)

0930 UK  December PPI, output (4.5% y/y)

0930 UK December PPI, core output (0.1% m/m)

0930 UK December PPI, core output (2.2% y/y)

0930 UK November DCLG house prices (11.3% y/y)

1000 Eurozone November industrial production (0.4% m/m)

1000 Eurozone November industrial production (3.8% y/y)

2100 NZ Q4 NZIER business opinion survey (-27)

 

Tuesday, 15 January 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

 

0001 UK December RICS house price balance (-40.6%)

0745 France December consumer price index (2.4% y/y)

0745 France December CPI, harmonized (0.6% m/m)

0745 France December CPI, harmonized (2.6% y/y)

0815 Germany 2007 GDP growth rate (2.9%)

0900 Italy December CPI, harmonized (2.8% y/y)

0930 UK December CPI (0.3% m/m)

0930 UK December CPI (2.1% y/y)

0930 UK December CPI, core (1.4% y/y)

0930 UK December retail price index (0.4% m/m)

0930 UK December retail price index (4.3% y/y)

1000 Eurozone January ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-35.7)

1000 Eurozone January ZEW survey, current situation (63.5)

1330 US December producer price index (3.2% m/m)

1330 US December producer price index (8.2% y/y)

1330 US December PPI, ex-food and energy (0.4% m/m)

1330 US December PPI, ex-food and energy (2.0% y/y)

1330 US December advance retail sales (1.2%)

1330 US December retail sales, ex-autos (1.8%)

1330 US January Empire manufacturing (10.3)

1500 US November business inventories (0.1%)

2330 Australia January Westpac consumer confidence (1.8)

2350 Japan November machine orders (12.7% m/m)

2350 Japan November machine orders (3.3% y/y)

2350 Japan December domestic goods price index (0.2% m/m)

2350 Japan December domestic goods price index (2.3% y/y)

2350 Japan November current account (¥2.222 trillion)

2350 Japan November trade balance (¥1.154 trillion)

 

Wednesday, 16 January 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

 

0030 Australia November home loans (-0.7%)

0030 Australia November investment lending (2.9%)

0600 Japan December machine tool orders (13.0% y/y)

0930 UK December claimant count rate (2.5%)

0930 UK December claimant count, change (-11,100)

0930 UK November average earnings, bonus (4.0% y/y)

0930 UK November ILO unemployment rate (5.3%)

1000 Eurozone EMU-13 December CPI (0.5% m/m)

1000 Eurozone EMU-13 December CPI (3.1% y/y)

1000 Eurozone EMU-13 December CPI, core (1.9% y/y)

1200 US MBA mortgage applications (32.2%0

1330 US December consumer price index (0.8% m/m)

1330 US December consumer price index (4.3% y/y)

1330 US December CPI, ex-food and energy (0.3% m/m)

1330 US December CPI, ex-food and energy (2.3% y/y)

1400 US November total net TIC flows (US$ 97.6 billion)

1415 US December industrial production (0.3%)

1415 US December capacity utilization (0.3%)

1500 Germany December CPI (0.5% m/m)

1500 Germany December CPI (2.8% y/y)

1500 Germany December CPI, harmonized (0.5% m/m)

1500 Germany December CPI, harmonized (3.1% y/y)

1800 US January NAHB housing market index (19)

1900 US Federal Reserve Beige Book

2145 NZ Q4 consumer prices (0.5% q/q)

2145 NZ Q4 consumer prices (1.8% y/y)

2145 NZ December food prices (0.4% m/m)

2330 Australia January consumer inflation expectations (14.2%)

 

Thursday, 17 January 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

 

0000 Eurozone November trade balance (€4.0 billion)

0030 Australia December unemployment rate (4.5%)

0030 Australia December employment change (52,600)

0430 Japan November industrial production (-1.6% m/m)

0430 Japan November industrial production (2.9% y /y)

0430 Japan November capacity utilization

0430 Japan December bankruptcies (11.1% y/y)

0900 Eurozone January ECB monthly report

1000 Eurozone November trade balance (€6.1 billion)

1000 CH January ZEW, expectations (-29.7)

1330 US December housing starts (1.187 million)

1330 US December building permits (1.162 million)

1330 US Weekly initial jobless claims (322,000)

1330 US Continuing jobless claims

1330 Canada November international securities transactions

1500 US January Philadelphia Fed index (-1.6)

1645 US Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks

1815 US Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks

2145 NZ November retail sales (-0.7% m/m)

2145 NZ November retail sales, ex-autos (-1.1% m/m)

2350 Japan Net equities and bonds investment

 

Friday, 18 January 2008

all times GMT

(last release in parentheses)

 

0030 Australia Q4 import price index (-0.8% q/q)

0030 Australia Q4 export price index (-3.0% q/q)

0500 Japan December consumer confidence (40.0)

0900 Italy November industrial orders (8.4% y/y)

0930 UK December retail sales (0.4% m/m)

0930 UK December retail sales (4.4% y/y)

1000 Eurozone November construction output (0.6% m/m)

1000 Eurozone November construction output (2.4% u/u)

1300 US Richmond Fed President Lacker speaks

1320 UK Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaks

1330 Canada November manufacturing shipments (0.1% m/m)

1500 US January University of Michigan consumer sentiment (75.5)

1500 US December leading indicators (-0.4%)